Aug. 20, 2022
It’s time to refresh the calibrator for the 2022 mid-term election season. Primaries are trickling in on most Tuesdays. The results alter the landscape.
Trump’s magnetic pull atop news cycles keeps pulsating. It hijacks politics, news and words of mouth. We get to oogle over Mar-a-Lago by overhead photos as Trump gets to cling to the glitter of the 74 million voting supporters he imagines made him president in 2020 or the 62 million voting supporters who did make him president in 2016 or even the 20 million doting viewers that made The Apprentice one of the top five TV shows in its 2003 inaugural year. That’s an adult lifetime of adulation during which he also gets to bench press his weight in legal filings, both criminal and civil (a term anathema to him), as judicial systems get played by years of delays and patented lies. Catch him if you can. Whatever emerges from the Mar-a-Lago search warrant episode, it will emerge after the 2022 elections, if not after the 2024 elections. He’s that deft.
In the meantime, the non-stop, deafening grunts (you have to hear it to appreciate it) of GOP officials conspire to drown out discourse and smother sanity. With conservative media paving the highways, diehard Republicans and loose cannons believe anything.
Yet, there is hope, real hope in the cards that are being dealt.
Election day is Nov. 8 and according to the tests of three months’ time, it’s getting closer every day. So much can happen and is happening.
Almost nine months ago, in December of last year, I ventured against all takers, most of whom were nursing conditions of fear or panic, that the Democrats could win 10 new U.S Senate seats, not counting four seats, now arguably five, the Dems hold in battleground states and should keep.
Read the two stories to get a bead on how I came to that conclusion.
The case is even stronger now. Maybe not for all 15 (I’m watching you, Louisiana) but enough to make all the difference, depending in part on what happens publicly with that Trump card.
Of the 15 states, only two, possibly three, feature GOP candidates who are arguably NOT Trump-locked. There's Iowa, with Chuck Grassley, and Alaska with Lisa Murkowski, though Alaska has a GOP Trumpie running in the Nov. election against Murkowski. Missouri had two Erics running in its GOP primary Aug. 2. The less gonzo Eric won. Trump endorsed both Erics in a bizarre exhibit of cluelessness.
New Hampshire’s GOP primary isn’t until Sept.13, so we won’t know how inclined to grunt that GOP candidate will be.
Only recently, another state slipped into the battleground arena for pundits sniffing around for a good fight. Colorado had looked like a Democratic shoo-in, with incumbent Michael Bennet seeking re-election. Out of the GOP primary on June 28, Joe O'Dea emerged as the nominee over a Trump-locked opponent. O'Dea positions himself as a "Republican Joe Manchin." Polls and some analysts aren't as ready to anoint Colorado with battleground status. We shall see.
What happens in the other dozen or so states if Trump implodes more decisively than now? The Trump-locked candidates have to confront, and seem destined to confront, not only support for Trump but for the denial of the legitimacy of the 2020 election. That’s a heavy load to carry over a candidate’s head into a general election. And that doesn’t factor in the defend-Trump imperatives that will accompany Trump’s mishigas (Yiddish for nonsense).
What’s your position, GOP Senate candidate, on defunding the FBI?
What’s your position, GOP Senate candidate, on the politicization of the Justice Department?
How do you explain, GOP Senate candidate, Trump’s need for exactly 11,780 votes from Georgia’s Secretary of State’s office?
Legions of diehard Republicans and loose cannons are believers no matter what, as are right-wing media provocateurs. They see, hear and speak no evil.
Still, if you are running a campaign that seeks to address right to life, the sanctity of the 2nd Amendment, the overspending of the Democratic agenda, and the specter of socialism, and media of all stripes demand answers on Trump-locked questions, how do you go about it? He's unforgiving and he’s listening.
Here’s what the scorecard looks like as of now. As they used to say at Wrigley Field, have your pencils and scorecards ready:
1. Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)
GOP: Mehmet Oz (Trump-locked)
Dem: John Fetterman
2. Wisconsin
Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson (Trump-locked)
Dem: Mandela Barnes
3. North Carolina
Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)
GOP: U.S. Rep Ted Budd (Trump-locked)
Dem: Cheri Beasley
4. Ohio
Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)
GOP: J.D. Vance (Trump-locked)
Dem: Tim Ryan
5. Florida
Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio (Trump-locked)
Dem: Val Demings
6. Iowa
Incumbent: Republican Chuck Grassley
Dem: Michael Franken
8. Kentucky
Incumbent: Republican Rand Paul (Trump-locked)
Dem: Charles Booker
9. Missouri
Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring)
GOP: Eric Schmitt (Trump-locked as soon as Trump figures out which Eric is which)
Dem: Trudy Busch Valentine
10. Louisiana
Incumbent: Republican John Neely Kennedy (Trump-locked)
Dem: Gary Chambers
Primary is on Election Day (Nov. 8). Election is Dec. 10
Four states the Dems need to keep—
11. Arizona
Incumbent Mark Kelly
GOP: Blake Masters (Trump-locked)
12. Georgia
Incumbent Raphael Warnock
GOP: Herschel Walker (Trump-locked)
13. Nevada
Incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto
GOP: Adam Laxalt (Trump-locked)
14. New Hampshire
Incumbent Maggie Hassan
GOP: Sept. 13 primary
15. Colorado Incumbent Michael Bennet GOP: Joe O'Dea.
Let's get to it. It takes work to drown out GOP grunts.
[The candidate links go to Ballotpedia, a neutral, nonprofit encyclopedia of American politics. My continuing thanks.]
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