Saturday, August 20, 2022

Trump-locked Senate campaigns are adding up

                                                                                                                                                Aug. 20, 2022

It’s time to refresh the calibrator for the 2022 mid-term election season. Primaries are trickling in on most Tuesdays. The results alter the landscape. 

Trump’s magnetic pull atop news cycles keeps pulsating. It hijacks politics, news and words of mouth. We get to oogle over Mar-a-Lago by overhead photos as Trump gets to cling to the glitter of the 74 million voting supporters he imagines made him president in 2020 or the 62 million voting supporters who did make him president in 2016 or even the 20 million doting viewers that made The Apprentice one of the top five TV shows in its 2003 inaugural year. That’s an adult lifetime of adulation during which he also gets to bench press his weight in legal filings, both criminal and civil (a term anathema to him), as judicial systems get played by years of delays and patented lies. Catch him if you can. Whatever emerges from the Mar-a-Lago search warrant episode, it will emerge after the 2022 elections, if not after the 2024 elections. He’s that deft. 

In the meantime, the non-stop, deafening grunts (you have to hear it to appreciate it) of GOP officials conspire to drown out discourse and smother sanity. With conservative media paving the highways, diehard Republicans and loose cannons believe anything. 

Yet, there is hope, real hope in the cards that are being dealt. 

Election day is Nov. 8 and according to the tests of three months’ time, it’s getting closer every day. So much can happen and is happening. 

Almost nine months ago, in December of last year, I ventured against all takers, most of whom were nursing conditions of fear or panic, that the Democrats could win 10 new U.S Senate seats, not counting four seats, now arguably five, the Dems hold in battleground states and should keep. 

Read the two stories to get a bead on how I came to that conclusion. 

The case is even stronger now. Maybe not for all 15 (I’m watching you, Louisiana) but enough to make all the difference, depending in part on what happens publicly with that Trump card. 

Of the 15 states, only two, possibly three, feature GOP candidates who are arguably NOT Trump-locked. There's Iowa, with Chuck Grassley, and Alaska with Lisa Murkowski, though Alaska has a GOP Trumpie running in the Nov. election against Murkowski. Missouri had two Erics running in its GOP primary Aug. 2. The less gonzo Eric won. Trump endorsed both Erics in a bizarre exhibit of cluelessness.

New Hampshire’s GOP primary isn’t until Sept.13, so we won’t know how inclined to grunt that GOP candidate will be. 

Only recently, another state slipped into the battleground arena for pundits sniffing around for a good fight. Colorado had looked like a Democratic shoo-in, with incumbent Michael Bennet seeking re-election. Out of the GOP primary on June 28, Joe O'Dea emerged as the nominee over a Trump-locked opponent. O'Dea positions himself as a "Republican Joe Manchin." Polls and some analysts aren't as ready to anoint Colorado with battleground status. We shall see.

What happens in the other dozen or so states if Trump implodes more decisively than now? The Trump-locked candidates have to confront, and seem destined to confront, not only support for Trump but for the denial of the legitimacy of the 2020 election. That’s a heavy load to carry over a candidate’s head into a general election. And that doesn’t factor in the defend-Trump imperatives that will accompany Trump’s mishigas (Yiddish for nonsense). 

What’s your position, GOP Senate candidate, on defunding the FBI
What’s your position, GOP Senate candidate, on the politicization of the Justice Department
How do you explain, GOP Senate candidate, Trump’s need for exactly 11,780 votes from Georgia’s Secretary of State’s office? 

Legions of diehard Republicans and loose cannons are believers no matter what, as are right-wing media provocateurs. They see, hear and speak no evil.

Still, if you are running a campaign that seeks to address right to life, the sanctity of the 2nd Amendment, the overspending of the Democratic agenda, and the specter of socialism, and media of all stripes demand answers on Trump-locked questions, how do you go about it? He's unforgiving and he’s listening.

Here’s what the scorecard looks like as of now. As they used to say at Wrigley Field, have your pencils and scorecards ready

1. Pennsylvania Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring) GOP: Mehmet Oz (Trump-locked) Dem: John Fetterman 

2. Wisconsin Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson (Trump-locked) Dem: Mandela Barnes 

3. North Carolina Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring) GOP: U.S. Rep Ted Budd (Trump-locked) Dem: Cheri Beasley 

4. Ohio Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) GOP: J.D. Vance (Trump-locked) Dem: Tim Ryan 

5. Florida Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio (Trump-locked) Dem: Val Demings 

6. Iowa Incumbent: Republican Chuck Grassley Dem: Michael Franken 

7. Alaska Incumbent: Republican Lisa Murkowski Kelly Tshibaka (Trump-locked) Dem: Patricia Chesbro 

8. Kentucky Incumbent: Republican Rand Paul (Trump-locked) Dem: Charles Booker 

9. Missouri Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring) GOP: Eric Schmitt (Trump-locked as soon as Trump figures out which Eric is which) Dem: Trudy Busch Valentine 

10. Louisiana Incumbent: Republican John Neely Kennedy (Trump-locked) Dem: Gary Chambers Primary is on Election Day (Nov. 8). Election is Dec. 10 

Four states the Dems need to keep— 

11. Arizona Incumbent Mark Kelly GOP: Blake Masters (Trump-locked) 

12. Georgia Incumbent Raphael Warnock GOP: Herschel Walker (Trump-locked) 

13. Nevada Incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto GOP: Adam Laxalt (Trump-locked) 

14. New Hampshire Incumbent Maggie Hassan GOP: Sept. 13 primary 

15. Colorado Incumbent Michael Bennet  GOP: Joe O'Dea.

Let's get to it. It takes work to drown out GOP grunts.

[The candidate links go to Ballotpedia, a neutral, nonprofit encyclopedia of American politics. My continuing thanks.]

 #####

Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Read the autopsy: The killer is Heller

                                                                                                                                                         June 2022 

What to do in the aftermath of the grade school massacre in Uvalde, Texas? We should realize that there is not much room for meaningful intervention in gun violence in the U.S. Many lawmakers are conceding that Congress must do something, mostly to show that they care and can be effective. More than thoughts and prayers, they keep saying. Lip service as public service. 
Trouble is the ammo has been stockpiled, thanks to the radical 2008 decision in DC v. Heller that was “egregiously wrong from the start” and has had disastrously “damaging consequences” and “far from bringing about a national settlement” of the gun violence issue, Heller has “enflamed debate and deepened division” and let loose a craving for guns. 

The highlighted words are not mine. They are Supreme Court Justice Alito’s. He crafted them to apply to the abortion decision in Roe v. Wade in 1973. Disingenuous as drafted for Roe, they are glaringly applicable to the Heller decision. 

In 2008 when Heller was decided, the 2nd Amendment right to keep and bear arms did not apply at all to individuals in their daily lives. It applied to those connected with service in a militia, as the text says. 
Seventy years earlier, in 1939, the Supreme Court addressed squarely the meaning and scope of the 2nd Amendment in US v. Miller. Does the 2nd Amendment protect an individual's right to keep and bear a sawed-off double-barrel shotgun, or is Congress’ law, the National Firearms Act of 1934, constitutional? The 2nd Amendment might apply, the unanimous Court held, but only if the actions of the two guys who transported a sawed-off double-barrel shotgun had a “reasonable relation to the preservation or efficiency of a well regulated militia.” If not, Congress and the states could do something about double-barrel shotguns without concern that the legislation offended the 2nd Amendment. They could legislate. 

It was a unanimous Court decision at the most divisive time for the Court’s legitimacy until today. Two years earlier, President Roosevelt attempted to pack the Court by adding more justices as a way to outflank the Court, which had held much of his New Deal legislation unconstitutional. In 1937, the Senate tabled the court-packing debate for good. The Court had heard the footsteps. The unanimous decision was written by Justice McReynolds, one of the most conservative members of the Court. 

When I was in law school from 1977-79, Miller was the law of the land. The notion that the 2nd Amendment applied to individuals in their daily lives was folly, of the kind that law professors had no use for, and fellow students wouldn’t even debate about. One of the law professors who was at the University of Chicago at the same time as I was was Antonin Scalia who would write the Heller decision 30 years later. He must have used the time to stew on it. 

By 2008, the Court was emerging as a conservative, though evenly divided, Court. Three years earlier, John Roberts replaced William Rehnquist as Chief Justice, a position he’s held ever since. Scalia was a force. 

Advocates sensed an opening. Amici (friends of the Court) lined up on both sides. The issue was whether the Firearms Control Regulations Act of 1975 that required all firearms including rifles and shotguns be kept "unloaded and disassembled or bound by a trigger lock" violated the 2nd Amendment. The context for the challenge was that The District of Columbia generally prohibited the possession of handguns, and the aggrieved person was a DC cop authorized to carry a gun while on duty who wanted to keep the gun at home. 

It was an ideal set of facts for a well-financed campaign in favor of expanding 2nd Amendment rights to bolt into gear. A majority of the members of Congress signed a brief advising that the Court overturn the limitations on guns, including Vice President Dick Cheney, who broke with the Bush administration’s official position, and in his role as Senate president, argued that the 2nd Amendment should apply. Then-Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott commissioned Ted Cruz to author a brief arguing for 2nd Amendment protections. Interestingly, that brief foresaw a regime in which states have a strong interest in maintaining each of the states' laws prohibiting and regulating firearms. 

The Court’s nostrils flared with the Heller decision. Scalia deployed a twisted logic to claim he was abiding by his bedrock right-wing philosophy of originalism and textualism when he concluded that reference to a militia in the 2nd Amendment was only prefatory and not operative so that keeping and bearing arms is an individual’s right. And the Miller case, entrenched as clear precedent for 70 years? As the right wing of the Court has expressed about Roe, a precedent of 50 years, they don’t need no stinkin’ precedent. Rather than overrule Miller, which the Court effectively did, an indignant Scalia mocked Justice John Paul Stevens and concluded that all the Miller case did was rule that a sawed-off shotgun was not eligible for 2nd Amendment protection. Imagine. Only 15 years later and we have assault weapons fitting snugly into the embrace of the 2nd Amendment. 

The divide in the Court in 2008 is familiar territory. The five in the majority were Scalia, Thomas, Alito, Kennedy & Roberts. The dissenters were Stevens, Souter, Ginsburg & Breyer. 

Unfortunately, the divide now is deeper and more entrenched. Replace Scalia with Neil Gorsuch, Kennedy with Brett Kavanaugh and add Amy Coney Barrett for six. The other side of the ideological spectrum is now three - Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson (replacing Breyer). 

State legislatures, as with abortion, have become emboldened to enact laws that bury Roe and Miller. Federal lower courts, teeming with right-wing ideologues who are in place for life, relish throwing gas on the fire, in the name of the 2nd Amendment. 

Thirty-one states allow the open carrying of a handgun without a permit or license. Concealed carry is legal, some needing a permit, some not, in all 50 states. More than 40 states have no assault weapons bans

California has one, enacted in 1989 after a grade school shooting in Stockton left five school children dead and 32 others wounded. One year ago this week, federal judge Roger Benitez, a Bush appointee, struck down California's law. In his opinion, he wrote: "Like the Swiss Army Knife, the popular AR-15 rifle is a perfect combination of home defense weapon and homeland defense equipment. Good for both home and battle, the AR-15 is the kind of versatile gun that lies at the intersection of the kinds of firearms protected under Heller and Miller.” 
----------------------------
"Like the Swiss Army Knife, the popular AR-15 rifle is a perfect combination of home defense weapon and homeland defense equipment. Good for both home and battle, the AR-15 is the kind of versatile gun that lies at the intersection of the kinds of firearms protected under Heller and Miller.” 
----------------------------
The intersection he must have been referring to was one at the corner of Shoot-Don’t Shoot. He wrote: “This case is not about extraordinary weapons lying at the outer limits of 2nd Amendment protection. The banned “assault weapons” are not bazookas, howitzers, or machineguns. Those arms are dangerous and solely useful for military purposes. Instead, the firearms deemed “assault weapons” are fairly ordinary, popular, modern rifles. This is an average case about average guns used in average ways for average purposes.” The decision has been stayed pending consideration by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. 

In the week after the shooter in the recent Uvalde, Texas grade school rampage turned 18, he legally bought two AR platform rifles and 375 rounds of ammunition. 

In the meantime, the Supreme Court is about to rule in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen on a 110-year-old New York law, the Sullivan Act, that requires state residents to obtain concealed carry licenses by demonstrating “a special need for self-protection distinguishable from that of the general community.” 

It is anticipated, with a similar level of certainty to the imminent overruling of Roe v. Wade, that the Court will rule that New York state’s concealed carry law violates the 2nd Amendment and cannot be enforced. 

So where are we? Let’s take stock. The disastrously “damaging consequences” of Heller, as Alito wrote in reference to Roe, will continue to wreak havoc on a country and political landscape disinclined to do much about guns. 

That’s why the lip service oozing out of Congress relates to namby-pamby actions such as federal laws requiring criminal background checks for gun buyers or ways to incentivize states to pass “red flag laws” aimed at keeping firearms away from potentially dangerous people. 

Why not, for instance, enact or re-enact a ban on assault weapons? Congress in 1994 enacted the Federal Assault Weapons Ban. Signed into law by then-President Clinton, it lapsed after 10 years, in Sept. 2004. A study by the National Institute of Justice concluded in 1999 that the “ban’s impact on lethal gun violence is unclear because the short period since the enabling legislation’s passage created methodological difficulties for researchers.” The report noted that the National Institute of Justice was funding a followup study that was to be released in 2000. The followup, which noted that its findings were similarly premature, was released in 2004, submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice, but not published by the Department. 

So why not have another go at it, and ban assault weapons throughout the U.S.?

Two reasons, both written on the wall. Congress, with its MAGA Republican base, won’t vote to re-enact it. They're having a tough enough time passing namby-pamby gun violence legislation. And the Heller-infused Supreme Court would likely hold an assault weapons ban unconstitutionally violative of the 2nd Amendment. Checkmate. 

It’s not the NRA (National Rifle Assn.), its money and influence, mitigated by its baggage of corruption, that’s in the way. Its recent annual meeting in Houston held in the shadow of Uvalde’s seering grief was promoted as having Donald Trump “headline a star-studded cast of political heavyweights.” The star studs were to include Trump, “Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Sen. John Cornyn, Sen. Ted Cruz, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, North Carolina Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.” By convention time, Abbott had sent a pre-recorded message and Cornyn and Crenshaw had decided not to attend

The United States is not Canada, which is expected to enact regulations that will ban the sale, purchase, importation or transfer of handguns, and institute a government buyback program of military-style assault weapons, according to the New York Times
NYT headline May 30, 2022

Nor is the U.S. New Zealand, which in 2019 launched a semiautomatic weapons ban and buyback program after a lone shooter stormed two mosques, killing 51 people. Nor is the U.S. Australia, which in the 26 years since a 1996 mass killing of 35 people, has collected more than more than a million semiautomatic weapons after they were banned by legislation. In the decade before gun law reform in Australia there were 13 mass shootings. Since, there has been one - a farmer shot and killed six members of his family, then himself in 2018. 

The U.S. is more like Mexico and Guatemala, which are the only two other countries that have a constitutional right to own a gun, according to Business Insider. The 2nd Amendment has inspired other countries to provide citizens with the right to own guns — including Bolivia, Costa Rica, Colombia, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Liberia. All have been repealed. 

A few respected people have offered a solution-in-the-sky. Repeal the 2nd Amendment. The New York Times recently resurrected an op-ed from 2018 written by then-retired Justice John Paul Stevens, who had dissented in Heller. If it was a plausible idea four years ago, and it wasn’t, it isn’t now. The Constitution requires that for a constitutional amendment to be repealed, a measure needs to be proposed by two-thirds of the House and Senate, or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the state legislatures. It is then up to the states to approve it, with three-quarters of the states voting for it. 

The New York Times also published a guest essay by two former law clerks, one for Scalia, the other for Stevens, who were in the thick of the thinking in Heller. They opined that the roadblock to effective gun laws is neither the 2nd Amendment nor Heller. They believe that politicians have misconstrued Heller and that lawmakers have plenty of latitude to regulate gun ownership and use. Tell that to Federal Judge Benitez, who sees assault weapons as “fairly ordinary, popular, modern rifles” that cannot be banned or to the current Court itself that is considering New York’s concealed carry law. 

I prefer to view history and the future neither through Stevens’ lens nor through the hindsight of two former law clerks but through the pen of former conservative federal judge J. Harvie Wilkinson, a Reagan appointee on the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals, who in a 2013 law review article criticized the Heller majority for bypassing the ballot and seeking to press their political agenda in the courts. 
The problem, or the killer, is not the 2nd Amendment per se. It’s the “egregiously wrong from the start” Heller opinion in 2008. 

That’s where my dream comes in. Chief Justice Roberts was among the 5-4 majority in Heller. In the 15 years since Heller, the courts have been transformed by Trump-MAGA appointees that have left the judiciary in the vulnerable position of having become an ideologically driven branch of government. It’s now Roberts’ Supreme Court, not Scalia’s, though Roberts is noticeably losing his legitimacy among the Court’s right wingers. The rift became visible when Clarence Thomas took a public poke at Roberts at a Dallas conference a couple of weeks ago. 

Roberts needs to redeem himself in the eyes of justice, which is to be blind to bias. What better way to show it and reclaim his integrity than to write in dissent in the pending New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen case and signal his willingness to reconsider Heller. That would presumably add up to four justices - Sotomayor, Kagan, Brown Jackson and Roberts - poised to reconsider Heller’s grip on the 2nd Amendment. 

I’d take one vote away over checkmate any day. 

 #####

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Riding on the lyrics of Steve Goodman

                                                                                                                                                 March 2022
[Read the original version published on Storied Stuff]

I didn’t own a stereo until freshman year in college when some of my high school buddies hitchhiked from Chicago to Grinnell to present me with my first stereo. My family had no stereo or record player so growing up, I played no albums or 45s. I spent most of my time when I was in our apartment, watching TV with my parents. Otherwise, I listened to music on AM radio. 

The stereo gift and the weekend sojourn to Grinnell were surprises rendered insignificant by the happenstance delivery method that accompanied the gift and my friends. The guy who picked up my hitchhiking buddies was Steve Goodman, for us one of the most exhilarating performers we hitched our wagons to. I'm told my buddies got into the car and Goodman asked where they were headed. They said Grinnell and he said what a coincidence, I'm playing at Grinnell tonight. 

The gig was in an intimate setting as with most things at Grinnell. At one point Goodman says apparently somebody here has a birthday. Why don't we give that person a chance for a request. I asked for I'm My Own Grandpaw, a goofball song from the’40s that Goodman sings with relish. 

Album I bought used for $20 that I 
unearthed from the basement for this story.
.
As with most stories worth remembering, this one would resonate throughout my life. One stop off point is when I met Margie who would become my wife. Our first date was to go to Milwaukee Summerfest because they were featuring Steve Goodman. We fell in love that day of course and the rest would be only the beginning of a storied history. 

Early the following fall, on Sept. 24, 1984, the Cubs clinched their first post-season opportunity since 1945. Goodman, possibly the Cubs’ most enduring fan, didn’t get a chance to celebrate. Twelve years into his bout with leukemia, he died four days before the Cubs clinched. He had written “The Go Cubs Go” anthem and “A Dying Cub Fan’s Last Request,” which he'd been singing since 1981. 

At the time, I was working at WBBM Newsradio and was responsible a few months later for writing a year-ender about Goodman. 
Copy of the 1984 year-ender script I wrote about Goodman.
I discovered it as I was writing this piece,
stashed away in the album jacket in the basement.

Fast forward to children. We have two. A couple of years ago, Noah the younger and I decided to create a game together. It's evolved into Lines n’Lyrix, an online game that that riffs off of song lines. From the lyrics on the screen, you guess the name of the song, who's known for singing it and who wrote it. The game is now up to 34 editions and more than 900 songs. We release five questions online a day. 

If you play, and we hope you will, we’re providing the readers of Storied Stuff an exclusive hint and two teases. You’ll find I'm My Own Grandpaw in the country edition. Check out Q. 5 when you play. 

As a bonus, you can find five Goodman tunes buried in various editions. You’ll have to play to unearth them. It’s worth it. Where else would you find, “Dealin' card games with the old men in the club car, penny a point ain't no one keepin' score. Pass the paper bag that holds the bottle, Feel the wheels rumblin' 'neath the floor.” 

Or “And then one thing led to another And soon I discovered alcohol, gambling, dope Football, hockey, lacrosse, tennis. But what do you expect? When you raise up a young boy's hopes And then just crush 'em like so many paper beer cups Year after, year after, year After year, after year, after year, after year, after year 'Till those hopes are just so much popcorn For the pigeons beneath the 'L' tracks to eat.”

#####

Monday, January 31, 2022

Melissa Ortega’s legacy: Wish I knew what officials have in mind when they boast of a “unity of purpose” to quell gun violence in the city

                                                                                                                                                 Jan. 31, 2022 News coverage of the death of Melissa Ortega is staying with me. 

At 8 years old, she died instantaneously of a gun shot in Little Village over a week ago on a Saturday afternoon at the corner of 26th and Pulaski, just southwest of Douglass Park and about halfway between the two expressways - 90 and 255 - that link Chicago to the western suburbs. 
Click here to go to family's 
GoFundMe site
Uncharacteristically, two suspects were taken into custody and charged two days later. The announcement was made in a public declaration of “unity of purpose” by a triumvirate of otherwise siloed officials - Police Superintendent David Brown, Mayor Lori Lightfoot, and Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx. 

Uncharacteristically in that Chicago is not known for reliable resolutions of homicides and other violent crimes. Statistics are revealing, though clunky. Chicago police (CPD) which is responsible for arrests turns suspects over to the Cook County State’s Attorney office, which prosecutes. 

CPD’s most current annual data (from 2020) indicates that of the 770 homicides that year, the cops cleared 45% of them. That means after investigations, seeking cooperation from community members and witnesses, and hard-knock interrogations that can take months or remain unsolved, CPD hands over not quite half the homicide cases to the State’s Attorney’s office. 

 This case took only a couple of days, largely due, we are told, to multiple surveillance videos that identified both the getaway car and the suspects, to the lingering presence of the apparent intended target of the shooting who was caught running from the scene, and to a community-based report to ShotSpotter, a non-governmental platform designed to bolster police-community engagement. 

The suspects are the driver, a 27-year-old guy, and the shooter, a 16-year-old kid who is characterized by police as a having a history of arrests, including carjackings. The 16-year-old is being charged as an adult with first-degree murder. 

Whatever the connection between the target and the shooters, police say gang-related, there was no connection to Melissa or her mom, Araceli Leaños, who was walking hand-in-hand with her down 26th St. to stop at the bank and then treat Melissa to a burger. They’d moved to Chicago from Mexico in August. 

The mom has expressed publicly two emotions that sum up the dilemma in our criminal justice systems. 

As a shattered, grieving parent, she poured out her heart in an interview in Spanish on Univision: “You took my entire life…You took the most beautiful thing, you took my reason for living…You have taken dreams from a marvelous girl.” In anticipating that the shooter would spend many years in prison, she pleaded for justice and for Melissa’s death to not be in vain. 
She also said in a statement read at the news conference announcing the criminal charges, “To the aggressor, I forgive you…You were a victim, too. As a 16-year-old, the community failed you, just like it failed my precious baby.” 

What are we to make of her two searing messages? Better put, how do we as a society and as diverse communities, mold her raw emotions into policy imperatives, being mindful of deeply ingrained, visceral and seemingly unyielding stakes. What is this “unity of purpose” our public officials pledge? 

Once police apprehended the two suspects, both appeared in court. The State’s Attorney’s office took over and both were denied bond. 

The data metrics for the State’s Attorney’s office reveal a different, yet overlapping urban narrative. The office is responsible for the county, which includes the city. For those of us who’ve tended to lose track of the flux in populations, Chicago has about 2.7 million people; Cook County has 5.1 million, meaning there are almost as many people living in the county outside the city as inside the city. For these purposes, it also means that the data on the State’s Attorney’s office’s performance and priorities, not broken down by city and other, are a reasonable ballpark measure of what’s up with the Chicago metro area criminal justice systems. 

The annual data for the State’s Attorney’s office is a year more current than that of the police. 

In 2021, 27,000 felony cases (including murders but not only murders) were brought to them. Nearly half were convicted. Almost all pleaded guilty. In all, 7,000 were incarcerated. Unclear whether the following suggests a trend but the year before, with more cases on the felony docket, only about 25% were convicted, and only 3,800 were incarcerated. Is that one year difference the intended result of a State’s Attorney’s office trying to avoid the slippery slope toward mass incarceration? If so, is gun violence the one act that is not to be forgiven? Melissa’s mom has me taking her heartfelt invocation seriously. 

The dilemma for our criminal justice systems is how to unify the purpose Brown, Lightfoot and Foxx pledged in the name of Melissa Ortega? Their one common purpose reflective of all of our common purpose is to reduce gun violence. 

That stipulated, how will the police, the mayor, the State’s Attorney and judges find common ground in reducing gun violence. 

A few months ago in the immediate aftermath of a shooting in the 1200 block of North Mason in Austin in which no one was charged though police witnessed the crossfire, the dilemma bubbled up publicly with police, Lightfoot and Foxx pointing fingers at one another. 

The friction turned public feud became visible for us to see: Not enough evidence produced by police. A State’s Attorney’s office too lenient even on gun violence. A community unwilling to be involved. A conspiracy of silence by rival gangs. And a mayor poking her nose into the case when she “knows it’s inappropriate to talk about cases publicly.” 

Block Club’s coverage of the affair elaborated on the persistent dilemma: “At the heart of the issue is Chicago’s years-long struggles with gun violence. Scholars, violence prevention activists and other experts have long said disinvestment, trauma, systemic racism and other factors fuel violence in the city, and communities and residents need mental health help, support systems and investment to prevent more losses. All hands need to be on deck, a headline from 2020 read
For the hands of police, mayor, State’s Attorney and judges to clasp to reduce gun violence, it will take a daunting conjunction of police solving far more felonies than they do now, a State’s Attorney’s office that is given the discretion to value the societal harm of excessive incarcerations in prosecuting offenders, a judiciary that is not fearful of allowing people charged with violent crimes to remain in the community prior to trial (particularly now in the buildup to the Pretrial Fairness Act which in Jan. 2023 will make Illinois the first state to abolish cash bail), a mayor that recognizes these often competing interests, and communities that both assist in identifying perpetrators so they don’t fail victims and assist their youth so they don’t become perpetrators at the mercy of gangs. 

 Formidable, that “unity of purpose.” May the words of Melissa’s mom inspire the formidable. Amen. Insha’allah. 

 #####

Friday, December 24, 2021

2022 can turn into a political dream come true-Part 2

                                                                                                                                                Dec. 24, 2021 

[In the holiday and year end spirit, if you click on the links, a few of them reveal musical treats.] 

This is the second installment. As with most TV serials, you’re advised to check out the first installment before taking this on, but the intro here will bring you up to speed.

Ted Lasso

I’m pulling out songs and lines to prompt you to believe, as Ted Lasso might tell you to, that the beleaguered Democrats have the opportunity of a campaign-time to take over the Senate with room to spare. 

The conventional wisdom is dire for the Dems. 

The Senate is divided 50-50, and as we approach the new year, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, one of the Dem’s 50, seems to be saying he’s not backing President Biden’s seminal Build Back Better legislation that contains provisions for universal pre-school, a child tax credit, home care for older Americans and people with disabilities, and climate change initiatives with jobs for displaced workers. Without the legislation, Biden looks like an albatross around the neck of any Dem running for the Senate. 

Then there’s covid. There’s always covid. The fate of covid has come to dictate everything from inflation to world markets, meaning the economy, stupid. It also looms over how families and schools cope, whether college and pro sports get played, how governments are perceived to respond, and the favorability of presidents, which in Biden’s case hovers at about 42%. 

As it is, four incumbent Democratic Senators - Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Mark Kelly in Arizona, Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire - are considered vulnerable in the 2022 elections. If they lose, that would eliminate the razor thin and compromised Democratic majority, and leave the Republicans with a four-vote unified majority. 

In the first installment, I staked out the case that Dems can win Senate races in five states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida, which would leave the Dems up one critical Senate seat even if they lose all four of the states they now claim, though tenuously. 

I’m about to move to the high wire and suggest that there are five more states ripe for Democratic pickin.’ My invocation to Dem strategists and moneyed interests is don’t become obsessed protecting the back flank of incumbency at the expense of five, make that ten, harder to get gettables. 

It isn’t even 2022 yet and word is seeping out incrementally, as the Washington Post reports, that the now dominant omicron variant of covid appears to be less severe than the delta strain. Is it possible that the iron curtain of covid may lift with enough time before the elections? News on covid will evolve daily for the next ten months until the 2022 elections, so don’t get cocky or complacent. 

One lesson as I roll out this installment’s five additional gettables is that although there is only a year before the 2022 elections, there IS a year before the elections. 

Time enough for covid and inflation to ease, for supply chains to open up, for the enacted $1.2 trillion infrastructure package to be more visible to the public it benefits, for Manchin and Biden to come to terms on how to Build Back Better, for the public to appreciate Biden’s accomplishments, and for the investigations into sedition committed by notable GOP lawmakers last Jan. 6 to bear the fruit that we know is thriving on the vine.

Lotta livin' to do

6. Iowa Incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley still has a lot of livin' to do to become the oldest person to serve in the U.S. Senate. At 88 years old, he’s a few months younger than Democrat Dianne Feinstein of California. Grassley will be 89 as of election day. Feinstein’s seat isn’t open until the 2024 elections, and as a way to keep her campaign committee active, she’s filed paperwork indicating she’ll run again. Both are years behind the bar Strom Thurmond set by remaining Senator of South Carolina until he retired in 2003 as the only member of either chamber of Congress to reach the age of 100 while still in office. Iowa has been slip slidin’ away since Dem. Tom Harkin retired from the Senate in 2014. For 30 years before that, back to 1984, Iowa sent one Republican, Grassley, and one Democrat, Harkin, to the U.S. Senate, and Democratic candidates won every Presidential election but one. When Harkin retired, Joni Ernst won the
Slip slidin' away

open Senate seat and was re-elected in 2020. Iowa bleeds red now, and controls the governor’s office and both state houses, allowing Iowa to engage in voter suppression tactics, as I’ve documented before. Bleak, due in part to a state Democratic Party, whose closely-held secret of ineptness leaked out nationally when they botched the bellwether Democratic caucuses in 2020. Yet, the state party continues to usurp control over the campaigns of Senate candidates. To be seen if they do again. This time, the Dems have a clear internal frontrunner for the nomination to oppose Grassley in former Congresswoman Abby Finkenauer . They also have three other candidates since a fourth withdrew last month. As the year ends, there are 660,000 registered Republicans; 610,000 registered Dems. Active Independents hold the power. They number 576,000. Iowa is red, can you show us some
Roses are red
blue? I don't sleep at night 'cause as a Grinnell alum, I'm thinking of you.

7. Alaska Incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski has been one of Alaska’s senators since 1980, when her dad left the seat to become governor. She, Susan Collins, and Mitt Romney are the three GOP senators most often mentioned who might be inclined to break the Republican stone wall on legislation. They formally recognized Biden as president, and after all, Murkowski voted to convict Trump of inciting the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. For that, in March, she was officially censured by the Alaska GOP Central Committee, which resolved to find a GOP alternative to her in the buildup to the 2022 election. Trump jumped right in and has endorsed a Republican to oppose Murkowski. She’s campaigning as a pro-life Christian. Last year, Alaska voted for a non-partisan primary system with ranked choice voting, in which the top four names on the ballot, regardless of party, advance to the election. That means that on the non-partisan primary ballot, there will be Trump’s hand-picked choice and Murkowski, whom Trump’s candidate has, in Trump-style, dubbed "Biden’s Chief Enabling Officer," and whichever other candidates surface. Ranked choice voting is designed to encourage candidates to run and discourage negative campaigning, a tough challenge when Trump has a bullseye on Murkowksi. To make matters quirkier, Manchin has endorsed Murkowksi all the way from West Virginia presumably over any to-be-announced Democratic candidate. Quirkier yet is that Sarah Palin has floated her candidacy and plans to run…if God wants her to. Oh yes, the Democrats. A Washington Post columnist is staking out the position that a Dem can win, so I won’t be the first. The Dems have many options, the most obvious Al Gross, who lost for the Senate in 2020, though he raised a state record of $19.5 million in funding. His Twitter account self-identifies in part as an orthopedic surgeon and commercial fisherman. Wikipedia heralds one of his achievements as having the first bar mitzvah in Southeast Alaska. Though Alaska is considered a red state and Trump won in 2020 with 53% of the vote, in 2016 he won with only 51% of the vote. In the spirit of ranked choice voting, bring on all comers. This caveat: In ranked choice voting, once the final four candidates from the primary get to the election, the ones with broadest appeal tend to have better chances of winning. As fans of Northern Exposure know, life
Northern Exposure wisdom
is nasty, brutish and short, the universe is a hostile place, and the Declaration of Independence doesn’t promise happiness. I’m going to enjoy this one. 

8. Kentucky Incumbent Republican Rand Paul deserves whatever he gets. He supports a Constitutional amendment limiting Senators to two terms. He’s served two terms. He’s running again. He’s not in favor of self-imposing term limits. That would result in some senators leaving office and others staying. Not fair. Charles Booker, a former Democratic state representative, is seeking to enforce term limits the old fashioned way, by defeating Paul in the 2022 election. Booker ran in 2020 to take on Mitch McConnell, Kentucky’s other senator and defacto leader of the GOP (sorry, Donald) and lost in the Democratic primary. So he knows the campaign territory and the funding lanes. In his first fundraising quarter (Q3 2021), he raised $1.7 million from 55,000 individual donations. Not a bad start. Kentucky is a red state and it’s Mitch McConnell’s state. It’s also a state with a Democratic governor, Andy Beshear. During the recent tornado devastation that pummeled Kentucky, Beshear was visibly empathetic and ever-present. The Louisville Courier Journal featured a photo essay documenting Beshear and the Lieutenant Governor handing out shoes to victims in Western Kentucky, a Republican stronghold. The tornado has thrown Paul into a precarious position. He, like McConnell and Beshear immediately petitioned Biden for federal disaster relief. In Paul’s case, it presented a dilemma because he’d vocally and legislatively opposed relief in many situations, invoking the fiscal conservative mantra that relief funds should be offset by budget reductions elsewhere. For instance, in response to Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in 2017, and even voting against aid for first-responders who answered the call on 9/11. A video of one of Paul’s speeches on the Senate floor is being circulated throughout Kentucky and beyond: "People here will say they have great compassion and they want to help the people of Puerto Rico, the people of
Grinch who stole progress
Texas, and the people of Florida, but notice they have great compassion with someone else's money." In time for Christmas present, Booker’s campaign came up with a clever video, The Grinch who stole Progress.

9. Missouri Incumbent Republican Roy Blunt is retiring. When he announced, he became the fifth GOP Senator to move on. USA Today framed the story this way: Sen. Roy Blunt won't run for reelection, complicating Republicans' bid to retake the Senate. Missouri has become a red state, flaming red in the case of the other senator Josh Hawley, who defeated two-term Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill to become, at 39, the youngest member of the Senate. Hawley has become a force to be reckoned with. On Dec. 30, 2020, he said he would object to counting the electoral votes for the presidential election and he became the first senator to announce formal opposition to Biden’s election. The day before the Jan. 6 insurrection, he tweeted that while he was in Missouri, “Antifa scumbags” came to his DC home and threatened his wife and daughter. Local police reported that the protests were peaceful. A photo of Hawley raising a fist at the Jan. 6 insurrection has become iconic. Recently, almost a year later, the Kansas City Star’s editorial board published a piece urging the Senate investigative committee to “use every tool it has to explore Hawley’s role in the chaos.” The reason Hawley figures into the 2022 senate race is that he and Trump complicate the GOP selection process in arriving at a standard bearer. Will a Hawley/Trump-oriented nominee emerge from the GOP primary in August, and what homage will be paid in the process considering that Hawley seems to be a more glaring liability for Republicans than Trump? As of the Sept. 30 reporting period, five GOP hopefuls have raised nearly $1 million or more each to run that gauntlet. As for the Dems, McCaskill is not running. "Nope. Not gonna happen. Never. I am so happy I feel guilty sometimes," she’s tweeted. Got it? As with the GOP but without the gauntlet, the Dems have a number of announced candidates. Only one, Lucas Kunce, a 14-year Marine vet, has raised more than $1 million. Another, Scott Sifton, a former state legislator, is getting there. If you can’t show me, it doesn’t mean a thing in Missouri. Hit it, US Navy Band’s Country Current. 
Missouri, Show me
10. Louisiana Incumbent Republican John Neely Kennedy is a sanctimonious and unapologetic embarrassment. He was one of six Republican senators who voted to sustain an objection to Arizona's electoral votes presented by Ted Cruz and Rep. Paul Gosar during the counting of electoral votes last January. His recent interrogation of Saule Omarova, Biden’s nominee to serve as Comptroller of the Currency, was hilarious in how inane he chose to be. You have to watch it to believe it, and pay attention to how Omarova managed to hold back her reaction to how bizarre his line of questioning, in which he addressed her as comrade, was. Bring back Senator Joe McCarthy, Joseph Welch and the call for basic decency. Louisiana uses a unique election system, often called the jungle primary, in which all candidates
Louisiana
run in one election regardless of party affiliation. If a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, they win. If not, the top two face off. Louisiana is a deeply red state. Trump won with nearly 60% of the vote. Yet it has a two-term Democratic governor in John Bel Edwards. So there’s hope. Luke Mixon, a political newcomer, has announced he’ll take on Kennedy. At this point, Mixon is the hope. Kennedy is the embarrassment. Louisiana, Louisiana. Your time to wash him away, your time to wash him away. 



 #####

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

2022 is a political dream come true

 

                                                                                                                                              Dec. 21, 2021 

[In the holiday and year end spirit, if you click on the links, a few of them reveal musical treats.]

Democrats, I’m pulling out every cliché, song, and line to inspire you. 

The elections of 2022, less than a year away, provide all the opportunity to take over the Senate with room to spare. 


I’m going to dispense with the palpable negatives in this one paragraph because I don’t want to dilute the inspirational message below. Sure, President Biden’s favorability of 42% or so is alarmingly low. Inflation is through the roof. The omicron variant has a stranglehold on the markets worldwide. You’d hardly know the economy otherwise is recovering. Covid has run amok again, thanks to omicron and Republican-induced vaccine resistance. The political right knows how to take advantage of big and little lies relentlessly. The Democratic Party can’t hold its own. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, a Democrat, shows all signs of being smugly content to make Biden’s first term a legislative failure. Historically, the political party of first term presidents gets whooped in the first off-year elections. Four incumbent Democratic Senators - Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Mark Kelly in Arizona, Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire - are considered vulnerable in the 2022 elections by many pundits. If they lose, that would eliminate the razor thin and compromised Democratic majority, and leave the Republicans with a four-vote unified majority. That’s plenty to kill the spirit. 

Democratic Party, you cannot let that happen. The American public and the world deserve better, need better, and ultimately must demand better. To rally the masses, I’m pulling out one cliché, song, and line after another. 
Accentuate the positive


There are ten states with potential flips to Democrats, according to the Dream Team of Jack Doppelt and his motivational delusions. 

1. Pennsylvania 
Incumbent Republican Pat Toomey is retiring. The Dems have a number of attractive candidates in the offing. The GOP has Dr. Mehmet Oz, frequent guest on Oprah before he started his own show. As an influencer doc, he’s promoted hydroxychloroquine to fight covid and dietary supplements and foods that falsely promise weight loss. The Trump-endorsed candidate withdrew after his estranged wife, accused him of abuse. Biden carried the state in 2020. Oz is polling well and we know celebrities have the name
Wizard
recognition to win. So..we’re off to see the wizard, the woeful wizard who’s Oz, we hear he is a whiz of a wiz if ever a wiz there was, because, because, because, because, because of the woeful things he says. 

2. Wisconsin 
Incumbent Republican Ron Johnson is a doofus of the highest order. In 2016, he was reelected with 50.17% of the vote, so he’s vulnerable. He rejects climate change, says he doesn’t when backed into a corner, also says that scientists who attribute global warming to human activity are "crazy" and that climate change is "bullshit." He touts debunked covid remedies, like mouthwash, and favors a move that would allow the
Duh Duh Ron Ron
Republican-controlled state legislature to take over the administration of Wisconsin elections. Most glaring and pronounced, he sticks with the redrock belief that Trump won Wisconsin and the election. Because the state legislature is GOP-controlled and passes voter suppression bills, Wisconsin is often mischaracterized as a red state. Johnson is the only statewide-elected Republican in Wisconsin. He’s served two terms (beating Russ Feingold both times) and is being coy about if he’ll run again. Someone told me that his name was Ron, duh duh Ron Ron, Duh duh Ron Ron. That’s Crystals clear. At last count, there were more than a dozen Democrats raising money for the race. Count them. See the money trickle away. Dems, keep your eyes on the prize, and remember the only thing the Dems do wrong is stayin’ in the wilderness too long
Keep your eyes on the prize


3. North Carolina 
Incumbent Republican Richard Burr is retiring. The Dems appear to have their act together. This week, one of the prospective candidates withdrew, leaving a clear path for Cheri Beasley, a former state Supreme Court Justice. The GOP is divided between two candidates, one supported by Trump. I view the recurring scenario of a Trump candidate vs. an outlier within the GOP as the under-recognized wild card for 2022. How will they avoid a brawl when a mean-spirited puppeteer, who neither forgives nor forgets, is pulling strings and dangling his pride? How will the GOP recover after the primary? Beasley is African American in a state whose population is about ¼ African American. Over the past ten years, by census data, the state’s population grew by 17%; the black population by even more. In 2020, the turnout for Black votes overall was 68%, according to the state’s Board of Elections. That can go up. As it was, nearly 20% of the 2020 vote was African American. In my mind, I'm countin’ Carolina. Can't you see the sunshine? Now can't you just feel the moonshine? 
Countin' Carolina

Incumbent Republican Rob Portman is retiring and Trump needs to be heard. Another arena for the under-recognized wild card. Ohio is textbook. A conservative organization, Club for Growth, has been running ads attacking one of the GOP Senate candidates, J.D. Vance, by using footage of him from 2016, when he described himself as a “Never Trump guy” and called Trump an “idiot,” “noxious” and “offensive,” according to Politico. Trump, got that? Club for Growth is running the ad because it’s backing a different conservative. Vance is running as a pro-Trumper, and the ads make Vance look hypocritical. Trouble is for Trump, it makes him look bad too. That is not ok. Trump wants the ad killed. Friction afoot in Ohio. The candidate for the Dems will likely be Tim Ryan, a Congressman who represents a working-class district in northeast Ohio and has been re-elected nine times. Here too, it looks like a Democratic Party, once the primary is over, can be unified and in a position to support a respected lawmaker. Then again, Trump won Ohio in both 2016 and 2020 by 8 points. That’s a lot. However, there’s Sherrod Brown, the other Ohio Senator who’s a Democrat. He was re-elected by 6 points in 2018. I call that a historical draw. Time to drum up some Ohio state fight. Come, on Ohio. Smash Thru to Victory, Dems. We'll cheer you as you go. Our honor defend for we'll fight to the end for old Ohio
5. Florida 
Incumbent Republican Marco Rubio is a formidable sleeze. GOP Governor Ron DeSantos is igniting the political right and toting Rubio with him. As in 22 other states, the GOP has a trifecta, controlling the governor’s office and both houses of the state legislature, and they know how to use it. In 2016, Rubio announced he wouldn’t run for a second Senate term. He ran for President and dropped out when Trump beat his butt in the primary in Rubio’s home state. Rubio got 27% of the vote. What to do? Change his mind and run for Senate re-election. He won. Rubio and DeSantos are both mentioned as presidential material for 2024. But first, 2022…by two years. Both Rubio and DeSantos are running for re-election at the same time. Who’s to say if potentially divided loyalties, efforts and fundraising will affect the GOP or the Dems more. The punditry is primed to paint the state red. Rubio has sharpened his campaign message to the old and tired, running against Biden and his “Build Back Socialist agenda." Rubio's likely opponent is US Rep. Val Demings, who served as one of the seven managers in the Senate impeachment trial of Trump, though there are about ten other Dems in the hunt. Rubio is targeting Demings…and Biden, as his Facebook page makes clear. 

X A champion of Biden’s Build Back Socialist agenda 
X Called plans to defund the police ‘very thoughtful’ 
X Described a violent riot as a ‘beautiful sight' 
X Supports illegal immigrants voting in our elections 
The Real @ValDemings is too radical for Florida. 
https://floridianpress.com/.../rubio-says-floridians.../ 

Florida, is this really how you roll? Is this is how you do when the world turns ugly, proud to be young, stick to your guns, love who you love? 
This is how we roll
Each of the five races is a statewide, or local, example, and should stand alone, if there’s guiding truth in the overused line commonly attributed to Tip O’ Neill, former Massachusetts Democrat and Speaker of the House, that “all politics is local.” 

If that were the case, there wouldn’t be so much handwringing about Biden, and Rubio wouldn’t be milking it. But of course, it’s not the whole story.

Biden and the Dems need to message much more effectively so that when the clock turns into election year 2022 in a few weeks, each of the Democrats seeking Senatorial office have legs to stand on. 

Biden can start today by deploying some ju jitsu-like moves to turn Trump’s aggressive, out of control, actions against himself and the political right. 

Oh, ho, ho, ho, Biden, time for some kung fu fighting. Bring it as fast as lightning. Trump is saying he’s
Kung fu fighting
vaccinated and boosted so he can take credit for creating the vaccine. Thank him for providing a good example to his resistant followers. If they follow his lead to vaccinate and get boosted, no need for mandates. Bow to your adversary. [Ed. note: As it turned out, that's just what Biden did in his talk, though in an understated way.]

Other underplayed messaging includes:
  • Biden’s successes in recalibrating the judiciary to appoint lifetime judges to a federal bench that has become, along with the Supreme Court, the province of the far right. It may yet return some legitimacy to the American judicial system. Biden’s gotten more judicial nominees confirmed through the Senate than any president at this point in his first term in decades. Almost half of the 61 judges he’s nominated to the lower courts have been confirmed, according to Five Thirty Eight
  • Biden is addressing climate change. It matters. If the Republicans persist in opposing and blocking efforts to save the planet and states from steroidal natural disasters, it needs to be on their heads, in every state where people have experienced the heartbreak and trauma of forest fires, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes. And don’t neglect the families of workers in the coal industry, in Manchin’s West Virginia and in Pennsylvania, Wyoming, Illinois and North Dakota, who suffer in the short run from environmental efforts that redirect resources. Direct job training and hirings in higher paying industries where people live have to be front and center and available in 2022. That’s where subsidies should go to build back better. 
If only these five statewide Senate wins come to pass, we won’t need no stinkin’ Manchin, and there’s more.
Don't need no stinkin'...
The second installment of five is right here.
#####